Tishaura Jones and Cara Spencer in Dead Heat for St. Louis City Mayor

March 7, 2021

With a little under a month before the April 6, 2021 General Municipal Election for mayor, Tishaura Jones leads her opponent Cara Spencer by five percentage points, 40% to 35% among likely voters, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

Show Me Victories conducted a survey of 550 registered voters in the City of St. Louis likely to vote in the April 6, 2021 General Municipal Election. The interviews took place between March 4-6, 2021. The survey data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system of landline telephones and SMS-to-web texts to cellular phones. The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 4.2%.

Jones receives strong support from progressives, blacks, those aged 18-39, and North City voters, while Spencer’s support is largely derived from moderates, whites, and South City voters.

One out of four likely voters (25%) have not decided who they will support in the April runoff with sizeable percentages of undecideds among North City residents (32%), those over sixty-five (29%), and ideological moderates (28%).

In terms of the March 2, 2021 mayoral primary, half of likely April voters (52%), who indicated they participated in the election, took advantage of the new approval voting system and voted for two candidates in the race compared to thirty-eight percent (38%) who supported only one candidate.

Among self-identified March 2021 primary voters, whites, independents, and South City residents were the most likely to support more than one mayoral candidate, while blacks, North City residents, and those over the age of sixty-five were among the least likely to support multiple candidates.

Among respondents who said they intended to vote for Tishaura Jones in the April 2021 Municipal General Election, fifty percent (50%) indicated that they had supported only one candidate in the primary.

In contrast, twenty-nine percent (29%) of Cara Spencer supporters, and twenty-nine percent (29%) of undecided voters, indicated that they had voted for only one candidate in the March primary.

Click here for full results. 

Thank you to Highlander Political Strategies for their partnership on our text-to-web portion of the survey.

Question: Number of Mayoral Candidates Supported in March 2021 Primary

Question : Reason for Only Supporting One Candidate

Question: Reason for Only Supporting Two Candidates

Show Me Victories is not contracted to work with either Tishaura Jones or Cara Spencer.