One Year Out:
Missouri voters share their opinions ahead of 2024 election cycle
St. Louis, MO – A recent poll conducted by Show Me Victories shows that Missouri voters remain undecided about the Democratic and Republican primary races for Governor but are settled into their choices for the United States Senate race.
Show Me Victories conducted a survey of 407 registered voters across Missouri to measure their opinions on the upcoming 2024 primary and general elections for Governor and United States Senate. The survey also asked voters their opinions on the positions of the two political parties as well as current elected officials and organizations.
The survey was conducted from October 26 to October 31 via SMS text message. The margin error, at the ninety-five percent confidence level, is plus-or-minus 4.9%. Percentage totals may not equal 100 due to rounding. This survey was prepared and conducted by Show Me Victories with the support of Vic Fingerhut Campaigns and Highlander Political Strategies.
Likely Democratic Primary voters have coalesced behind front-runner Lucas Kunce as the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate. 55% say Kunce is their top choice. 36% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided, with 9% saying they would vote for someone else.
The Democratic primary for Governor is less settled, with 58% of voters undecided. House Minority Leader Crystal Quade is the top choice of decided voters with 39% saying they are likely to vote for her in the August primary. Businessman Mike Hamra comes in with 2% support from decided likely voters.
Candidates in the Republican primary for Governor all have room to grow, with 49% of likely Republican primary voters indicating they are still undecided. The top two candidates are nearly tied and well within the margin of error: Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe is the first choice at 19%, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft is second at 18% and State Senator Bill Eigel trails the top two at 6%.
When considering a general election matchup for the United States Senate, Democratic front-runner Lucas Kunce has 42% support, and incumbent Josh Hawley has 46% support, well within the margin of error. Only 8% of likely November voters remain undecided in this race.
Potential November matchups for Missouri Governor between Democrat Crystal Quade and Republican candidates are within the margin of error:
Undecided or Someone else (29%)
Undecided or Someone else (27%)
Undecided or Someone else (32%)
Potential November matchups between Democrat Mike Hamra and possible Republican candidates favor the Republicans:
Undecided or Someone else (36%)
Undecided or Someone else (32%)
Undecided or Someone else (37%)
Likely November voters were asked to state their approval of some influential organizations and elected officials:
Voters were asked to select the issue most important to them as they consider how they may vote in 2024:
Finally, voters were asked how they felt about the two major political parties when considering their positions on issues that most affect working families.
When asked which party is most likely to support workers in basic labor/management disputes, 46% of respondents selected the Democrats and 27% sided with the Republicans.
When considering the protection of Social Security and Medicare, 48% of respondents said the Democrats were more likely to fight cuts to those programs, with 24% saying the Republicans would fight cuts.
Overall, discontentment with both parties is high, with 60% of respondents saying that neither party represents the interests of working families.
Show Me Victories is an experienced communications and political firm performing work throughout the United States. Show Me Victories offers a wide range of services for its clients including digital communications, campaign management, polling, research, direct mail, email management, and fundraising. Show Me Victories clients include labor unions, nonprofits, candidate campaigns, political action committees, elected officials, coalitions, government agencies, and civic leaders.
Vic Fingerhut Campaigns is an internationally recognized and respected survey research and communications firm that has polled and designed campaigns for political groups, governments, labor unions, businesses, and non-profits globally.
Highlander Political Strategies is based in Southwest Missouri and provides telephone and texting services in the research, non-profit, and political market segments.