Recent Poll Shows Tishaura Jones has Slight Lead in St. Louis City Mayor’s Contest

March 30, 2021

In the race to be the next mayor of the City of St. Louis, Tishaura Jones leads Cara Spencer, 42% to 37%, a week before the April 6, 2021, General Municipal Election. The five-percentage point lead for Jones is within the poll’s margin of error and matches the lead she held in an earlier SMV poll conducted in early March which had the race at 40% to 35%.

“Treasurer Jones’s lead over Alderwoman Spencer is within the margin of error, and with one out of five likely voters undecided, it is anyone’s race,” stated Show Me Victories Director of Polling, Bryce Summary, Ph.D. “Both candidates have put forth policy platforms that offer a new direction for the city and it will be interesting to see which vision resonates the most with voters.”

Treasurer Jones benefits from a passionate base of supporters with 82% of her voters stating that they support her strongly. In contrast, 69% of Spencer’s supporters identify as strong supporters.

Jones draws significant support from females, those under fifty years of age, North City residents, Central City residents, blacks, and self-identified progressives. Since the last SMV poll, Jones has seen her support increase among progressives (+8%) and liberals (+7%) and seen her biggest declines in support among conservatives (-18%) and Republicans (-8%).

Spencer’s strongest supporters are whites, South City residents, and males as well as self-identified moderates, conservatives, and Republicans. Over the course of a month, Spencer has seen her support increase among Republicans (+14%) and conservatives (+14%) and seen her biggest declines in support among voters aged 40-49 (-5%).

One-fifth of the electorate remains undecided (21%) with North City residents, blacks, females, and voters over the age of sixty-five comprising the largest percentages of this group. Among those identifying as undecided, more than half (59%) do not lean towards a candidate, while 18% lean towards voting for Spencer and 23% lean towards supporting Jones. “Of the undecided voters, Tishaura Jones looks to gain the most ground. A big block of undecided voters are in North City, black, and female,” stated Braxton Payne, Democratic Consultant. “Those voting blocks already make up a large percentage of Jones’ base of support thus giving her room to grow her margin.

In terms of bringing about significant political change to the City of St. Louis, voters view Jones as the candidate most likely to do so. 39% of likely voters believe Jones is most likely to bring about significant political change to the City of St. Louis, compared to 28% of voters who believe Spencer is that candidate with 33% unsure.View Full Results and Crosstabluations Here. 

Show Me Victories conducted a survey of 650 registered voters in the City of St. Louis likely to participate in the April 6, 2021 General Municipal Election. The interviews took place between March 25-28, 2021. The survey data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system of landline telephones and SMS-to-web texts to cellular phones. The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 4.0%. Show Me Victories is not working for either Tishaura Jones or Cara Spencer or any independent expenditure in the Mayor’s race.